Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Newly number region 838
(N17E34) produced two low level C-flares. The largest of these
flares was a C3.5 flare at 22/0948 UTC. Region 839 (N19W08) was also
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Further C-flare activity is possible from Region 838.
Old Region 826 (S06, L=259) is due to rotate on the visible disk on
23 December. This region produced four M-flares during its last
rotation.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 088 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 005/007-005/007-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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