Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 17 2241 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. No significant
development was observed from the active regions on the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Regions 846
(N04W56) or 847 (S08W35).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 083 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 085/090/090 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 008/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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