Viewing archive of Monday, 19 December 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 19 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of a few B-class events from Region 837 (S10W06), which has developed into the largest sunspot group on the disk at 200 millionths. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed showed an increase up to about 470 km/s after 1700Z, which was accompanied by a southward interplanetary magnetic field. The solar wind speed appeared to be slowly declining after 2030Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next three days (20 - 22 December).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Dec 090
  Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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