Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 837 (S11W19)
remains the largest group on the disk with about 210 millionths
sunspot area. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind
speed increased to about 680 km/s after 0200Z with an accompanied
increase in temperature. At time of issue, solar wind speed was
still elevated at approximately 560 km/s. These solar wind
signatures are consistent with a small coronal hole
high-speed-stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (21 December)
with a chance for isolated active periods. Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected for 22 and 23 December.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 088 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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