Viewing archive of Monday, 21 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 21 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 822
(S08W37) has decayed in both size and magnetic complexity. Regions
823 (S15W63) and 824 (S12E57) have been quiescent. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a chance for M-class activity from Region 822.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 095 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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