Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 20 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 822 (S08W25) produced two C-class flares. A C2.5 flare occurred at 20/0736Z, and a C1.5 flare occurred at 20/1520Z. This region continues to slowly decay. New Region 824 (S13E68) rotated onto the visible disk today.IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 822 is capable of producing an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with periods of active
conditions occurring between 19/1500Z and 19/2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods possible on 21 November due to a solar sector boundary
crossing.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 096 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 012/015-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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