Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 19 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 822 (S08W12) produced
two C-class flares. A C5.8/Sf flare occurred at 18/2357Z, and a
C1.5 S/f flare occurred at 19/2019Z. The region continues to decay
slowly. New Region 823 (S18W37) was numbered today. This emerging
flux region developed rapidly in the last 24 hours. CME activity
observed today on LASCO imagery appears to have originated from
back-sided events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 822 may still be capable of producing an M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with periods of active
conditions occurring after 19/1500Z due to a solar sector boundary
crossing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible on 21 November due to a solar sector boundary
crossing. There is a slight chance that weak transient effects,
resulting from the disappearing solar filament which occurred late
on 16 November, may enhance activity on 21 November.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 102 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 007/008-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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