Viewing archive of Friday, 18 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 18 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
822 (S07E02) produced an M1/Sf flare which occurred at 18/0034Z.
Multiple B and C-class flares were also recorded from Region 822.
This region appears to have decayed slightly during the past 24
hours. Several B and C-class x-ray flares were also observed from a
source region just beyond the northwest solar limb. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 822 may be capable of producing an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on 19 November. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on 20 November. Isolated
active periods will be possible on 21 November due to a solar sector
boundary crossing. There is a slight chance that weak transient
effects resulting from the disappearing solar filament that occurred
late on 16 November, may help to enhance the geomagnetic field on 21
November.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 101 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 005/005-007/007-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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