Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 22 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 815 (S14W68) continues to decay. LASCO imagery depicts a weak, full halo CME that appears to be from a back-sided source region, first seen at 22/0942Z. No new regions were numbered today.IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The Geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels, with a brief
active period observed between 22/0000Z and 22/0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels throughout the period.
The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned coronal
hole.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 075 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 010/012-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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