Viewing archive of Friday, 21 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 21 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 815 (N07W19) showed very little change from yesterday and remains a simple beta magnetic spot group. No new regions were numbered today.IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on 22 October. Isolated active
periods are possible beginning late on 23 October, due to a
favorably-positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 075 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 005/008-010/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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