Viewing archive of Monday, 31 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 31 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity continued at very low levels. A B8 flare
was observed at 31/1643Z from near S03 on the east limb. This area
of bright emission on the southeast limb is likely the return of old
Region 814 (S08, L=228). A new bipolar sunspot group was numbered
today as Region 819 (S09E26). This spot group emerged in close
proximity to Region 818 (S08E32), which is also a small beta group
in a slow growth phase.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from the tightly
grouped Regions 818 and 819. A C-class flare is also possible from
old active Region 814, which is rotating into view on the southeast
limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The most disturbed
conditions were associated with a period of sustained southward IMF
Bz that began at around 31/0900Z and persisted through the remainder
of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into
a geoeffective position on 03 November.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 078 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 008/010-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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