Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 01 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 818
(S08E19) and 819 (S09E12) have not changed much over the past 24
hours, and maintain a relatively simple beta magnetic configuration.
A large plage field associated with old Region 814 (S8, L=228) has
rotated into view on the southeast limb, but no sunspots are
visible.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions occurred
early in the period following an extended episode of southward IMF
Bz. Solar wind speed remained below 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 02
and 03 November. Isolated minor storm periods are possible on 04
November as a large recurrent coronal hole rotates into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 077 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 005/008-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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