Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 30 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 818
(S06E47) is a small beta sunspot group in slow growth. Bright
emissions on the southeast limb in SXI imagery may be associated
with old active Region 814 (S08, L=228), which is due to return on
01 November. Region 814 was formerly Region 808, which was very
active during its early September passage across the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a small chance for C-class flare
activity after 01 November as old active Region 814 rotates into
view on the southeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 076 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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