Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 March 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 16 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 742 (S06W50) remains the most complex group on the sun, but has produced only B-class x-ray events. SXI imagery shows an active region just behind the southeast limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for C-class flares from Region 742.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active on 17 March due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Predominantly unsettled is expected on 18 March, with a return to quiet to unsettled expected on 19 March.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Mar 105
  Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        16 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Mar  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  012/015-010/012-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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