Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 March 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 17 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Only B-class events have been observed, mostly from Region 742 (S06W65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled on 18 March. Quiet to unsettled is expected on 19 March, decreasing to quiet on 20 March.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Mar 101
  Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  010/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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