Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 12 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C2/Sf flare at 1721 UTC
from newly assigned Region 752 (N00E76). There were additional
B-class events during the past 24 hours and all of these were from
752 as well. At this time Region 752 is a small, D-type sunspot
region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (13-15 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Conditions were at mostly active to minor storm levels during the
past 24 hours with a major storm interval at high latitudes from
0000-0300 UTC. The enhanced activity is being driven by a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 36 hours (13 April to 14
April 1200 UTC) due to persistent coronal hole effects. Conditions
should begin to decline partway through the 14th and should be quiet
to unsettled by the 3rd day (15th).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 085 Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 020/025-012/018-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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