Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. A B3.1 flare occurred at
05/1710 from Region 706 (S07W74). No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 0600 UTC and 0900 UTC due to the arrival of a CME
which occurred on 03 December. A shock was observed at ACE at
05/0656. A sudden impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer
at 05/0747 with a deviation of 47 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period is
possible on 06 December.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 096 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 008/015-008/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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