Viewing archive of Monday, 8 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M2.3/1N flare occurred
from Region 696 (N08W36) at 08/1549 UTC. Region 696 was also
responsible for several C-flares and maintains a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. The region decayed slightly to 600
millionths in white light. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with the possibility of M-class and isolated X-flares from
Region 696.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storming levels.
Nine hours of severe storm conditions during the period were the
result of almost six hours of Bz at -40 nT from 07/2230 UTC to
08/0420 UTC. This very significant geomagnetic activity was likely
due to a shock arrival associated with a CME from the M9 flare that
occurred on 06 November. The greater than 10 MeV protons began the
period above thresholds, reached a maximum value of 495 pfu at
08/0115 UTC, and ended the period at 60 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The Geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on 09 November due
to the arrival of a CME associated with the X2.0 flare observed on
07 November. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on 10
November. Quiet to active levels are expected on 11 November.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 124 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 022/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 130/190 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 040/040-025/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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