Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only small B-class flares
occurred in the past 24 hours. Both Regions 707 (S13W64) and 708
(N09W26) are slowly decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Small flares could occur in Regions 707 and 708. An
isolated M-class flare is possible in 708 but will become less
likely as the region decays.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The solar wind observed by ACE RTSW
over the past 24 hours has been characterized by weak IMF and
unusually low density and speed. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet until the arrival of the CME associated
with the M1 flare on 03 Dec. Arrival is still expected before
mid-day on 05 Dec. Geomagnetic storm conditions are possible on 05
Dec as a result of the CME and the influence of an anticipated
high-speed coronal hole stream in the same time period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 097 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 035/040-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 01% |
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