Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 November 2004
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A Region on the East limb
at S16 produced a B5.4 flare at 21/1656 UTC. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated
levels were due to the lingering presence of a high speed coronal
hole stream. At approximately 21/0000 UTC, solar wind speed
increased to an estimated 640 km/s and has gradually declined to 590
km/s as of the end of the summary period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 101 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 011/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 008/015-004/010-004/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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