Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 November 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low today. Region 704 (N12E51) has shown slight growth in area. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to the effects of sustained periods of southward Bz. Solar wind speed at ACE showed an increase from 450 km/s to 550 km/s at approximately 1600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M05%05%10%
Class X01%01%05%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 099
  Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  010/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  008/020-004/010-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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