Viewing archive of Monday, 25 October 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C6.8 flare was observed from Region 687 (N12E03) at 25/1031 UTC. Region 687 also produced several other low level C-class flares. Region 691 (N15E48) produced a C4.2 at 25/0252 UTC and maintains a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class flares from Region 687 are expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an active period on 25 October between 0900 and 1200 UTC. The active period was most likely due to a geoeffective coronal hole. ACE data show solar wind speed has remained around 500 km/s, however the total interplanetary magnetic field strength has decreased from approximately 10 nT to 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active conditions on 26 October. On 27 and 28 October, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
Class M55%55%55%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Oct 140
  Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        25 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Oct  010/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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