Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar Activity was very low. Only one B-class event
occurred in the past 24 hours. Region 673 (S13W90+) rotated around
the West limb. New Region 676 (S11E78) was numbered and appears to
be a simple H type spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 090 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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