Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A faint full-halo
CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 1255Z, although the
CME is most likely backsided. New Region 667 (S09E76) is rotating
onto the visible disk from the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. On 03 September, isolated active
conditions are possible due to a glancing blow from a CME shock
associated with the M1.4 flare from Region 663 on the 31 August at
0538Z.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 090 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 100/110/110 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 014/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 005/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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