Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 618 (S09W72)
produced a single C1.2 flare at 30/1934 UTC. Region 618 has
decreased slightly in magnetic complexity and is in a beta-gamma
configuration. New region 622 (S12E72) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 618 and 621 (S15E51) may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with active and isolated minor
storm conditions possible for the next three days as a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 100 Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 100/100/090 90 Day Mean 30 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 015/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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