Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 635 (S11W80)
produced a C1.3 flare at 26/0424 UTC and a C8.6 flare at 26/0718
UTC. The region conitnues a steady decay in size and magnetic
complexity. New Region 638 (N07E22) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
on 27 June, and decrease to very low levels on 28 June as Region 635
passes behind the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
speed has increased to 400 km/s, indicating possible effects of a
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with periods of active conditions
possible for the next three days as a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 099 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 008/015-010/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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