Viewing archive of Friday, 30 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Newly numbered Region 602
(S14W53) generated a single C-class x-ray event on 30 April at 0547
UTC. Region 599 (N17W41) continues to decay in both area and number
of spots. Along with Region 602, Region 601 (S09W20) was newly
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
Portions of a solar wind transient associated with a C3.1 x-ray
event on 27 April likely elevated magnetic activity early on the
30th of April, but subsided to quiet levels by 1200 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet from 30 April through 02 May, rising to
unsettled by 03 May. A high speed solar wind stream associated with
a coronal hole is expected to impact the magnetic field by 03 May.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 089 Predicted 01 May-03 May 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 008/012-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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