Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 December 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through 19 Dec.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 17 - 18 Dec. By 19 Dec, a high-speed stream should begin to impact the Earth's magnetic field, elevating the geomagnetic field to active to minor storm levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Dec 106
  Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  110/110/115
  90 Day Mean        16 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  018/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  012/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  012/012-010/012-018/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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