Viewing archive of Monday, 15 December 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Only a couple of minor C-class flares have occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active too minor storm levels. A high-speed solar wind stream due to a coronal hole continued to elevate activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at active to minor storm levels through the remainder of the 15th. The field should subside to quiet to unsettled levels for 16 - 18 Dec as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective range.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Dec 101
  Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec  098/100/105
  90 Day Mean        15 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  016/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Dec  025/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  018/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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