Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 November 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 501 (N03W04) continues to be active, generating a series of high C-class flares and an M1.7 at 19/0401Z. Region 508 (S17E75) formerly old Region 486, was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 505 (S22E41) and 506 (S20E62), along with 501 will continue to be a strong threat for M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The coronal hole which had driven high solar wind speeds for the last few days, has progressed beyond geoeffective range, and activity has relaxed. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours. Minor storm levels should occur near the middle of the period, due to a glancing blow from an interplanetary shock issued by an M4 flare on 17 Nov. Beginning near midday on day 2, magnetic activity should jump quickly to active to major storm levels for the remainder of the period. A strong shock associated with a combination of a disappearing solar filament and coronal mass ejection should impact the Earth's magnetic field on or about 20 Nov at 1200Z.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
Class M80%80%80%
Class X20%25%25%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Nov 155
  Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov  180/200/210
  90 Day Mean        19 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  018/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Nov  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  040/050-030/040-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm35%25%15%
Major-severe storm20%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%35%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%15%

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