Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar acitivity was low. Region 397 (N12W65) produced
several C-class flares, the highest being a C2.3/Sf at 08/0230Z.
Region 400 (N05W24) produced a C1.5 at 08/0251Z, and Region 402
(S12W58) produced two C-class flares, a C5.2/1f at 08/0730Z and a
C3.2/Sf at 08/1626Z. A large filament in the northwest quadrant
erupted in parts: a 23-degree section (N30W22) early in the period
and a 21-degree section (N38W38) at 08/1500Z. Region 397 decreased
in size and magnetic complexity, to a beta-gamma configuration.
Region 402 grew rapidly in size over the period. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 397 has potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period,
with isolated active to minor storm conditions on day three due to
increased wind speeds from a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 131 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 009/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 012/010-010/010-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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