Viewing archive of Monday, 4 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 424
(S18E39), with over 700 millionths of white light area, showed some
growth this period, but was otherwise quite stable. Despite this
region's moderate size, it maintains a relatively simple magnetic
structure. New growth was observed in Region 425 (S09E36), but
activity was limited to occasional plage fluctuations and minor
surging. New Region 428 (N16W10) was numbered today. A full halo
CME, first seen on LASCO imagery at 03/0030Z, was likely a backside
event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible from Regions 424 or 425. Region 424 has
slight potential to produce an isolated M-class flare
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed continues
to show a steady decline as the large southern coronal hole rotates
out of a geoeffective position. Occasional periods of southward Bz
account for the active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through day
one with isolated active periods likely again. A large equatorial
coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position by day two and
produce unsettled to minor storm conditions through the remainder of
the period. Isolated major storm periods at higher latitudes are
expected on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 123 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 008/015-015/025-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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