Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 375 (N10W62) produced major flare activity including an X1.3/2b at 11/0002 UTC and an X1.6/1n at 11/2015 UTC. Region 375 maintained its size and magnetic complexity. Region 380 produced an M1.8/1f at 11/1743 UTC. At 11/1730 UTC a filament near S37E12 erupted and was observed on SOHO/EIT and Mauna Loa H-alpha. Background X-ray flux remained at M levels for 6 hours during the period beginning at about 1300 UTC. New Region 383 (N19E22) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 remain capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels, due to continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active through day one, with isolated periods of minor storm conditions possible due to CME arrival from yesterday's flare activity. Unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three as the coronal hole wind stream moves out of geoeffective position. Active conditions are possible on day three due to potential effects of CMEs related to the major flares and erupting filament observed today.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
Class M95%95%75%
Class X40%40%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jun 193
  Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun  160/150/145
  90 Day Mean        11 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  019/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jun  020/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  010/015-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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