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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S14W34) remains the largest region on the disk. This region has decreased slightly in white light area and spot count but retains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 349 has the potential for continued C-class flares as well as an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for 04 May. Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 05 May-06 May as a result of activity from a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
Class M60%50%50%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 May 148
  Predicted   04 May-06 May  135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        03 May 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  011/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 May  013/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  010/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%40%
Minor storm15%20%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

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