Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S14W34)
remains the largest region on the disk. This region has decreased
slightly in white light area and spot count but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 349 has the potential for continued C-class
flares as well as an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for 04 May.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 05 May-06 May as a
result of activity from a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 148 Predicted 04 May-06 May 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 03 May 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 013/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 010/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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