Viewing archive of Friday, 30 May 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 365 (S07W59) remains the largest and most complex sunspot group on the disk with some decay evident since yesterday. The largest flare in this region was a C8/1n at 30/0650 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to moderate to high. Region 365 remains capable of another major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels. The field was mostly unsettled to active since about 30/0600 UTC with a single minor storm period from 30/1500-1800 UTC. The CME associated with the X1 flare early on 29 May was apparently observed to encounter the ACE spacecraft at about 30/1600 UTC. The shock in solar wind parameters was not strong and an SI was not clearly observed by ground magnetometers. The proton event at greater than 10 MeV has ended: 28/2335 UTC start, 121 pfu peak at 29/1530 UTC, and 30/0110 UTC end.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels as the current CME passes.
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
Class M80%80%80%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 May 117
  Predicted   31 May-02 Jun  115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        30 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  059/089
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 May  035/060
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  025/040-015/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%15%
Minor storm30%10%05%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%50%50%
Minor storm50%20%10%
Major-severe storm30%10%01%

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