Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only one C-class event occurred
during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 1306 UTC. SOHO/EIT images suggest
that newly assigned Region 242 (S08E61) was the source for the
event. New Region 241 (S25W40) was assigned today. Region 239
(S09W17) continues to be the largest group on the disk with an area
of 70 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind density,
velocity, and total magnetic field showed a steady increase
beginning around 1700 UTC. This may mark the beginning of a
corotating interaction associated with a favorably positioned
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high
levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active over the next two days
due to coronal hole effects. A decline to mostly unsettled is
expected by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 118 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 012/015-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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