Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Just isolated small C-class
activity occurred, as the disk regions were either stable or
decaying. One new region emerged, 275 (S11W08).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. One period of active
conditions was observed in the past 24 hours. The GOES greater than
2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 124 Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 010/012-010/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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