Viewing archive of Friday, 6 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 214 (N12W41)
produced a C2/Sf at 06/0856 UTC. Region 214 exhibited gradual
growth in penumbral area and spot count. Region 208 (N09W24) has
shown slight decay but maintained a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 212 (N12E21) grew in spot count and has
developed into a Dao spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Isolated moderate activity is possible from Region 208, Region 212,
or Region 214.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A sector
boundary crossing and coronal hole effects were observed late in the
day by the NASA/ACE spacecraft. At about 06/1630 UTC solar wind
velocity increased to near 410 km/s and continues a gradual rise.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached
high levels for the eighth straight day. GOES-8 values reached 8230
pfu today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The arrival of a coronal
hole and the possibility of shock effects from the M2 event on 04
November are expected to result in quiet to active conditions on day
one. Coronal hole effects should continue through day two and three
of the forecast period with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 148 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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