Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. An unobserved C6 x-ray flare at
0232UTC was the most energetic event of the day. Region 162 (N26E10)
continues to dominate the disk. Although its plage forms one
contiguous field, there are indications that the region may contain
two bipoles. The westernmost large spot shows hints of a contained
magnetic structure, while the easternmost spots, although
unorganized, have a distinctive bipolar topology. The region may be
reclassified, pending further evolutionary changes. Elsewhere, two
new regions, 166 (S06E08) and 167 (N18E75), were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly active. The greater than 2
MeV electrons at GOES were at high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled, with an increasing chance of
active levels near the end of the interval. Effects of a high speed
solar wind stream may be seen on 26 October.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 164 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 010/015-010/010-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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