Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of occasional low-level C-class
subflares. The majority of these were from Region 132 (N20W53),
which continues to be the largest group on the disk and also the
most complex with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. This group
has decreased in area during the past 24 hours. Region 134 (N11E50)
showed moderate growth and managed to produce a subflare. Region 130
(N06W04) also showed growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class event from Region 132 or Region 134.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days. There is a
possibility for an increase to unsettled to active late on the third
day as a positive polarity coronal hole will be rotating into a
geoeffective position at that time.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 150 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 145/140/135 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 001/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 005/007-005/007-010/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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