Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 162
(N27E22) produced an M1/Sf flare at 22/1535 UTC. Region 162
continues to grow and has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration in the trailing spot. Region 160 (S20W56) has shown a
decrease in area coverage and spot count in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 162 has M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. One period
on isolated active conditions was observed at 22/09-12 UTC. Solar
wind velocity continues to gradually decrease, ending the period
near 450 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on day one due to the M1/Type II event on 20 October.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 169 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 012/020-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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