Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low with several minor C-class
flares observed throughout the period. Region 119 (S14E04)
exhibited considerable growth and was responsible for majority of
the C-class flares. Renewed complexity developed in Region 105
(S09W70) and occasional C-class flares were observed. White light
areal coverage still exceeds 500 millionths in this moderately
complex beta-gamma region. Active Region 114 (S11W57) showed
significant decay over the last 24 hours. New Regions 124 (N03W49)
and 125 (S08E69) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Best chance for an isolated M-class flare is from
developing Region 119 or Region 105 as it approaches the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods. The disturbed conditions are due to the elevated
solar wind speed (550 km/s).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly unsettled levels with isolated active
periods. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on the latter
half of day one due to the C8 flare and partial halo CME that
occurred early on 17 Sep. Expect conditions to return to unsettled
levels as the expected storm subsides on day two.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 177 Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 175/165/160 90 Day Mean 18 Sep 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 013/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 015/020-015/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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