Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 69 (S07W71)
produced an M5/2b event at 22/0157 UTC. This event had an
associated 260 sfu Tenflare and a Type II and Type IV radio sweep.
This region has decreased slightly in size and sunspot count and
continues to maintain the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
New Region 87 (S07E74), numbered today, produced an M1/1n event at
22/1802 UTC. Another region was numbered today as Region 86
(S21E29).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 69 remains capable of producing a major
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active conditions. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 22/0440 UTC and is still in
progress. The tentative maximum for this event has been 36 pfu at
22/0940 UTC. Also, a greater than 100 MeV event began at 22/0340
UTC, reaching a maximum of 1 pfu at 22/0510 UTC and ended at 22/0615
UTC. This activity is associated with the M5 event observed today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled conditions.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 24 August in
response to the M5 event observed today. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue into 23 August.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 40% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 220 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 215/215/210 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 019/041 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 015/015-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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