Viewing archive of Friday, 26 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 44 (S21E17)
produced five M-class events. The largest was an M8/2n at 26/2112
UTC. It also produced an M4/1n at 26/0010 UTC with an associated
250 sfu Tenflare and a long duration M1/Sn at 26/0829 UTC. This
region has grown significantly and is currently 430 millionths of
white light with 42 spots and a magnetic beta-gamma configuration.
This region is located to the southwest of Region 39 (S16E22) which
has an area of 940 millionths of white light and a magnetic delta
configuration. Three new regions were numbered today as Regions 48
(N18E52), 49 (S06W30) and 50 (S07E36).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 39 and
44.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that started 22/0655 UTC is still in progress with the
tentative maximum of 28 sfu at 23/1025 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible as a result of the activity from the past several days.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to drop below
threshold within the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 242 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 010/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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