Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 September 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The most impressive event of the period was a long duration C8/1f flare and associated CME at 17/0820Z from Region 114 (S11W43). This region has been in gradual decline, but still maintains moderate complexity. Region 110 (N17W75) was the likely source of the C5 flare at 17/0205Z. A CME with Type II radio sweep (1000km/s) accompanied this flare. Region 119 (S14E17) continues to develop and produced several minor flares in the past 24 hours, the largest being a C8/Sn at 17/0921Z. The largest region on the visible disk is Region 105 (S08W56) at 560 millionths of white light area. This moderately complex region was relatively quiet, producing occasional subflares. New Region 123 (S16E30) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Several regions on the disk have the potential for an isolated low M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with one active period between 17/12-15Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled. Active periods are likely on day three in response to today's long duration C8 flare and CME from Region 114.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
Class M40%40%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Sep 194
  Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep  195/190/190
  90 Day Mean        17 Sep 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Sep  015/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  010/012-010/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%35%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%40%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

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