Viewing archive of Monday, 25 March 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9878 (N08E15) produced the two largest events of the period - a C6/Sf at 25/1039Z and a C9 flare at 25/2008Z. No significant changes were noted in this moderately complex beta-gamma spot group. Regions 9880 (N08W22) and 9881 (S03W48) have shown some growth this period, but remain relatively stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9878 has the potential to produce isolated M-class flares. Expect minor C-class flares from Regions 9876 (S15E05), 9880, and 9881.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The period began in a disturbed state in the waning stages of yesterday's major geomagnetic storm. Another interplanetary shock was observed at ACE at 25/0058Z. The field remained quiet to unsettled following this shock as Bz remained northward for the duration of this weak transient passage.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 170
  Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  170/170/170
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 209
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  029/047
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  010/010-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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