Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 March 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9876 (S15E18) produced a long-duration C5/Sf flare at 24/1754 UTC. This region showed a minor spot increase near its leader spots, but showed an overall decrease in area due to a decrease in penumbral coverage in its trailer spots. It remained moderately complex with mixed polarities within its trailer portion. Region 9881 (S03W34) showed minor spot growth and produced a C4/Sf flare at 24/2036 UTC. Spot growth was also observed in Region 9880 (N07W08), but it produced no optical flares. Region 9878 (N09E28) retained moderate magnetic complexity, but showed no significant changes.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There's a fair chance for isolated, low-level M-class activity during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity increased to active to major storm levels during 24/0200 - 1200 UTC. Field activity decreased to active to minor storm levels during 24/1200 - 1800 UTC, then decreased to mostly unsettled levels for the rest of the period. The increase in activity coincided with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz (maximum southerly deflections to minus 12 nT (GSM), as measured by NASA's ACE spacecraft). The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/2020 UTC ended at 23/2030 UTC. The peak flux for this event was 16 pfu at 23/1320 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 25 March. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Mar 175
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar  170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 210
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  035/050
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  015/020-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

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