Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 February 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares occurred from a variety of regions. The largest was an impulsive C9/Sf at 26/1027 UTC in Region 9830 (S17W92). Regions 9842 (S19W49) and 9846 (S03W68) continued to grow in sunspot number and area. Both regions produced C-class activity during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible in Region 9830, 9842, or 9846.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Feb 208
  Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar  200/195/190
  90 Day Mean        26 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Feb  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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