Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9557 (S20W78)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 07/0737 UTC as well as several C-class
subflares throughout the past day. The sunspot group maintains
moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 9563 (N24W34) also
produced C-class subflare activity. New Region 9572 (N16E23) was
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9557 is the most likely candidate for M-class
activity and may produce an isolated major flare before it rotates
around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 166 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 014/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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