Viewing archive of Monday, 6 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9557 (S20W64)
produced an M4/1N flare at 05/2224 UTC. Growth in the region has
slowed but it maintains moderate sunspot area and magnetic
complexity. Regions 9563 (N23W21), 9566 (N17W08), and 9570 (S10E61)
also generated C-class subflares. New Region 9571 (N05E78) was
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. C-class flares should continue and M-class activity is
possible in a number of active Regions, most notably 9557, 9563, and
9566.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels under
the influence of disturbed solar wind conditions that included
sustained southward IMF.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 164 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 013/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 020/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
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